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Global Cotton Stocks Continue To Decline In Next Half Year Of 2017
- Mar 06, 2017 -

 On February 24, the USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum made a preliminary look at the 2017/18 market. US cotton production is expected to grow by 14 percent to 11.5 million acres in 2017, but US cotton production is expected to be 17 million bales (3.7 million tonnes) due to abandonment and yields to normal levels. The world's third consecutive annual production is insufficient, ending stocks continue to decline.

USDA expects US cotton to sown more than 11 million acres, higher than the previous NCC forecast, due to nearly a month ICE futures in December 2017 contract rose 5%. US cotton harvest area of about 10 million acres, an increase of 5%, abandoned rate (excluding the southwest region) is 13%. The abandonment rate in the southwest is 20%, lower than the historical long-term average, but much higher than the 8% in 2016. The region's abandonment rate is very unstable, the US cotton production will have a great impact. US cotton average yield of 60.9 kg / mu, less than 2016/17 annual 63.8 kg / mu, also less than 61.4 kg / mu nearly five-year average.

2017/18 year, the United States at the beginning of inventory of 4.8 million bales (1.054 million tons), the US cotton supply of 21.8 million bales (4.476 million tons), an increase of 1 million bales (21.8 million tons). As the export supply increased, 2017/18 US cotton exports are expected to reach 13.2 million bales (2.784 million tons) of nearly seven-year high, higher than the current year's 12.7 million bales (2.765 million tons). US domestic cotton consumption of 3.4 million bales, a slight increase, due to increased domestic supply and demand for a slight increase, but the chemical fiber will still inhibit the growth of cotton consumption. US cotton ending stocks are expected to increase to 5.2 million bales (1.132 million tonnes), the highest level since 2008/09, up from 4.8 million bales (1.045 million tonnes) this year. US cotton accounted for global exports and ending stocks accounted for 31.2%, are the highest level in nearly seven years.

In the global context, global cotton consumption in 2017/18 is expected to exceed production for the third consecutive year, with inventories continuing to decrease by 6 million bales (1.306 million tonnes), but the increase in supply outside China will put pressure on cotton prices. The Kautloc A is expected to fall by 5 cents to 77 cents. So in the next half year of 2017, all the produces of cotton fabric, poly cotton fabric etc need to pay attention this status closely.

Tag: cotton fabric;poly cotton fabric